CONFIDENTIAL
Problem: To minimize, and it possible to prevent, repatriation of Korean residents in Japan to North Korea.
Discussion: Agreement has now been reached between Japanese and North Korean Red Cross Societies for the repatriation of Korean residents in Japan to North Korea, with the reservation on the Japanese side that the ICRC must agree to participate. While there is a slight chance that the ICRC will refuse participation, and the agreement will thus be nullified, the concensus is that the ICRC will accept the agreement, probably with amendments to give it greater scope in ascertaining that the principle of freedom of choice is adhered to, and that repatriation will then begin.
Should the ICRC agree to particpate under safeguards for the principle of freedom of choice, repatriation will be objected to in the free world solely by the ROK Government, since all other free nations adhere to this principle, which they regard as one of the fundamental liberties and therefore to be strictly maintained in contrast with the Communist bloc which of course denies all freedoms to the individual. In this circumstance, the ROK Government will be unable to prevent repatriation (the U.S. Government has already indicated that it will not countenance any action which might threaten peace or the security of the area), and its negative attitude will result only in a lose of the good will which it now enjoys among the free nations. The free world will also blame the ROK Government for the consequent further deterioration of ROK -Japanese relations, since it was the ROK Government which suspended the talks for an overall settlement with Japan. (Japan has now settled its war claims with all countries except Korea.) Moreover, the continuation of U.S. aid will be rendered awkward, since Regulation I of ICA, enacted by Congress, required the purchase of aid commodities at the lowest cost; as is known, Japan is able to supply certain critical aid requirements for Korea cheaper than other markets.
The question therefore arises as to what course of action the ROK Government should pursue in its national interest. Clearly it is important to demonstrate that a majority of the Korean residents in Japan support the ROK Government, and that the greater number of those desiring to leave Japan would prefer to come to the ROK. Given the fact that the North Korean Red Cross, with the obvious consent of the Kremlin, has reluctantly agreed to some participation of the ICRC in the repatriation procedures, but has indicated that it will not consent to full and free screening of individual applicants by the ICRC, it would seem essential to work to increase such ICRC participation to the extent that it will be intolerable to the North Korean regime. If this can be brought about, the North Korean puppet authorities will themselves almost surely withdraw from the agreement. In any event, full participation by the ICRC is the best guarantee that repatriations to North Korea will be held to the lowest possible figure, particularly if the Korean residents can at the same time be offered alternatives of repatriation to the ROK or of continued residence in Japan with legal status.
To make these alternatives available to the Korean residents, however, agreement must be reached between the ROK and Japanese Governments in terms which would provide for full-scale ICRC screening. While it is probably true that a majority of the Korean residents in Japan now adhere to the Chosen Soren (Communist organization), it is believed that this attachment is due mainly to the fact that Chosen Soren has spent much time and money on welfare and other Korean community projects, whereas the Minden (loyal to ROK ) has been relatively inactive in this field. There is reason to doubt, therefore, that many of the group are basically loyal to the North Korean regime. Finally, the U.S. Government has offered to assist in obtaining "compensation" from the Japanese Government for certain Korean residents if ROK -Japanese agreement on repatriation seems possible.
Conclusion : Ironically, the best chance of preventing repatriation to North Korea is to accept the principle of freedom of choice of residence, which the North Korean regime now pretends to accept but can be made to reject if they are faced by such acceptance by the ROK Government on the basis of ICRC screening. However, if the present negative attitude of the ROK Government and the Minden is continued, and repatriation begins while the Chosen Soren continues its lavish support of the Korean community in Japan, it seems inevitable that a vast majority of all Korean residents in Japan will eventually turn against the ROK.
I can only be concluded, therfore, that talks with Japan should be resamed with the good offices of the U.S. Government, and that agreement should be reached without delay providing for repatriation of Korean residents in Japan to the ROK.
Recommendation : That the U.S. Government be requested to sound out the Japanese Government regarding the willingness of the latter to conclude a repatriation agreement with the ROK Government immediately, based on compensation for certain Korean residents (probably in a lump-sum payment) and with full-scale ICRC participation. Action should be taken at once, While the ICRC is still considering the JRC -NKRC draft agreement, and while talks between the JRC and KKRC are suspended.